Last week (June 25-29), ICE cotton futures fell further, but the market is expected to stabilize gradually as demand remains strong and US cotton production may be lower than expected due to the unusually dry drought in Texas. The fall in the Indian rupee and China’s tariff on US cotton have stimulated cotton exports, which has kept Indian cotton prices rising.

As of June 29, ICE Futures December contract fell 1.38 cents, or 1.6%, has fallen 9.1% from a four-week high. During the same period, the international spot price changes were relatively limited. The Coulter A index fell only 7.4% in four weeks, and is currently about 93 cents, returning to the long-term range of 90-95 cents. Demand for cotton is still strong, although new cotton production in the southern hemisphere is not low, but global cotton supply is still relatively small.

Judging from the actual cotton planting area released by the US Department of Agriculture, the 2018 cotton price increase can be confirmed, but it will be slower than expected. Due to the prolonged drought in western Texas, the market may find some support and prices are expected to stabilize at current levels.

China has announced that the 25% tariff on imported US cotton has been digested by the market, and strong demand in other markets will keep prices at a relatively high level. The fall in the exchange rate of the renminbi will reduce the competitiveness of imported cotton in the Chinese market, thus facilitating the digestion of domestic cotton and stocks. At the same time, China has also shifted the demand for US cotton to other varieties, canceled some orders for US cotton, and signed new orders for high-grade cotton in India.

At present, the Indian rupee exchange rate fell to a historical low, so the dollar price of Indian cotton continued to fall last week, while the rupee offer continued to rise. In addition, Pakistan's cotton prices have remained stable, and the first batch of new cotton to be picked will enter the spot market in the coming weeks.