Polyester filament: short-term "two highs, two lows" deadlock is difficult to break

Now it is said that polyester filament is currently high cost, high inventory, low demand, and low profit, so what is the reason for this? How to predict the future market trend?
Since February, due to geopolitical influences such as severe cold weather and the Russian-Ukrainian war, international crude oil has risen strongly, supporting the polyester raw material end, and the price of polyester filament has risen under high costs. As of March 9, the polymerization cost was 7495 yuan / ton , up 15.68% compared with before the Spring Festival, while the polyester filament POY150D/48F was at 8350 yuan / ton, up 7.05% compared with that before the Spring Festival.
In terms of supply, due to production restrictions last year, most of the factories have been overhauled, and factories are worried about the loss of workers. During the Spring Festival, the polyester load is generally high, and the supply continues to increase after the festival. In the same period last year, it rose by 19.3%. However, the return of downstream demand-side workers and new orders were limited, and the recovery was slow. The superimposed downstream was more resistant to high-priced raw materials, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not good. The pressure on factory inventory increased, the market was weak, and profits were rapidly squeezed .